Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x7085…11ed
weather · 370 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$125 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$125 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$157
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses85 / 243
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions42
Markets (closed)328 / 370
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 42 History 328 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+21%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 78¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 −$1 -14%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +140%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 5? Jun 04 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 2? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 2? Jun 01 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 31 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 31 $17 −$2 -9%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? May 31 $1 $0 -12%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 31 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May May 30 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 27? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 28? May 28 $0 $0 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29? May 28 $1 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? May 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 30? May 28 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma May 28 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 27? May 28 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 26 $2 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% +$39
sports 26% −$47
weather 24% −$100
politics 7% −$4
world 5% +$3
crypto 5% −$16
finance 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $3 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 27h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $2 44h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 47h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 47h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $3 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.2% +19.6% 60% 60% +23.4%
≤30d 99 -30.6% -37.2% 20% 20% -22.9%
≤90d 328 -17.3% -25.2% 26% 23% -20.8%
all 328 -17.3% -25.2% 26% 23% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 23% -20.8%
10% -32.3% 21% -28.4%
15% -38.9% 17% -35.3%
20% -44.9% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.69 · official $156.69 (match) · 995 history records