Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x708a…540f sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$120
other 22% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 37% -12.3%
≤30d 52 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 37% -12.3%
≤90d 52 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 37% -12.3%
all 52 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 37% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 37% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 35% -20.7%
15% -24.3% 29% -28.4%
20% -31.7% 29% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$25 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$79 +388%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$6 -72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$24 -79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 −$26 -84%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$27 +89%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$23 +32%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -57%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$104 +145%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$39 -96%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$29 -95%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$19 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$29 -95%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 −$15 -36%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$21 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$90 +873%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 +$31 +307%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $111 +$29 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$18 -45%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$1 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$9 +19%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 −$36 -71%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$22 -70%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $31 +$48 +158%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $48 +$37 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$37 +121%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$24 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 11¢ $7 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 9¢ $5 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $30 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $10 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $6 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 15h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $71 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $21 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 17h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records