Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x708b…e937 weather 1627 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+1%) realized +$132 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate95%1406W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day199.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$25
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 856 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 18% -10.0%
≤30d 1485 -0.1% -9.7% 95% 18% -9.8%
≤90d 1485 -0.1% -9.7% 95% 18% -9.8%
all 1485 -0.1% -9.7% 95% 18% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 18% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1406 / 79
Open positions147
Markets (closed)1485 / 1627
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day199.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 147 History 1485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? No 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 5? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 49m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.20 · official $799.09 (match) · 3500 history records