Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x708e…d03f other 315 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-3%) realized −$70 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%116W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$164
14 days+$126
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$374
sports 37% +$22
politics 7% +$217
crypto 3% −$55
world 1% −$47
weather 1% +$31
culture 0% −$15
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.1% -3.1% 56% 52% +13.6%
≤30d 32 -16.4% -24.3% 44% 41% +4.2%
≤90d 257 -27.9% -34.8% 30% 29% -14.4%
all 310 -22.6% -29.9% 37% 31% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 31% -13.1%
10% -36.6% 28% -21.4%
15% -42.8% 25% -29.0%
20% -48.4% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses116 / 194
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)310 / 315
History coverage124d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ 32¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 16¢ $48 $16 −$32 (-67%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Scotland finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 31¢ 7¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $28 −$28 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $36 +$74 +206%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $24 −$24 -99%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $35 +$40 +114%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $43 +$37 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $50 +$40 +80%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $44 +$49 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 +$4 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $22 +$14 +66%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $24 +$23 +96%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $25 +$46 +186%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $33 +$34 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $28 +$5 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $17 +$11 +68%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$9 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $11 −$10 -99%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 3.5 May 16 $30 −$19 -65%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $17 +$13 +73%
FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5 May 16 $50 −$50 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5 May 16 $17 +$10 +60%
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 5.5 May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 May 16 $44 +$34 +78%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $51 −$4 -8%
SK Brann vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 3.5 May 16 $33 −$32 -99%
Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $20 +$13 +62%
Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $29 −$28 -99%
Spread: Rangers FC (-1.5) May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $46 +$60 +129%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 16 $18 +$13 +70%
Bohemians Dublin FC leading at halftime? May 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC leading at halftime? May 15 $14 −$14 -98%
CD Castellón leading at halftime? May 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $49 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $28 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $31 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $109 19h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $24 21h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $75 21h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $35 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $36 23h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June SELL Yes 99¢ $80 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $50 43h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 52¢ $43 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $93 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $18 45h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $44 46h
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $44 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $36 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $36 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $22 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $25 3d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $47 3d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $24 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $26 4d
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $71 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.95 · official $73.95 (match) · 677 history records