Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x708f…b674
crypto · 173 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$25 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses102 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage50d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 69¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 09 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 09 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 09 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 08 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$20
sports 2% −$5
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -13.9% -22.1% 61% 61% -18.0%
≤30d 31 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 68% -15.7%
≤90d 172 -7.7% -16.4% 59% 52% -16.9%
all 172 -7.7% -16.4% 59% 52% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 52% -16.9%
10% -24.4% 39% -24.9%
15% -31.7% 21% -32.1%
20% -38.4% 15% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.35 · official $0.93 (match) · 333 history records