Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7093…3bf7 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+0%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$21
politics 29% −$15
sports 8% +$92
tech 5% −$2
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
world 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 116 +3.1% -6.7% 13% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 9% -9.4%
10% -15.6% 6% -18.1%
15% -23.8% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×10.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage131d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $417 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $919 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 25 $264 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $377 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $264 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $305 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $333 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $359 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $339 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $343 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $366 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $323 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $363 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $587 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $374 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $336 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $332 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $336 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 17 $305 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $383 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $358 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $348 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $280 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 13 $322 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $400 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $389 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $302 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $351 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $383 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $331 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 21h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 15d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 20d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $311 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $311 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $373 25d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $374 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $264 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $264 28d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $378 28d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $378 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $377 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $377 29d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $269 29d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 29d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $264 30d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $264 30d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $354 30d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $354 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $302 31d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $302 31d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $305 32d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $305 33d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $333 33d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $333 33d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $359 33d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $359 34d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $320 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 352 history records