Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7093…c7f9 sports 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 761d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$186 (+2%) realized +$241 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 38L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$56
14 days−$69
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$317
sports 32% +$21
politics 18% +$69
world 2% −$194
tech 0% −$29
economics 0% −$20
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +30.2% +17.8% 42% 42% -18.0%
≤30d 29 -8.1% -16.8% 38% 38% -22.4%
≤90d 66 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -13.6%
all 84 +6.7% -3.5% 55% 52% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 52% -7.2%
10% -12.7% 50% -16.1%
15% -21.1% 39% -24.2%
20% -28.9% 30% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$41 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

761d coverage
Net worth$811
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 38
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions7
Markets (closed)84 / 100
History coverage761d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 63¢ 58¢ $500 $458 −$42 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 83¢ 81¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 47¢ 42¢ $47 $42 −$4 (-10%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$38 -37%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $68 +$80 +118%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$34 +67%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $61 −$60 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 −$11 -35%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread Jun 23 $10 +$56 +542%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $41 −$40 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 +$44 +146%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$31 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $92 −$27 -29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$56 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $89 −$88 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $30 +$19 +62%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 18 $274 +$68 +25%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $100 +$67 +67%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 15 $380 +$111 +29%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05? Apr 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5 Apr 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? Apr 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Apr 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $194 −$194 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Apr 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $18 +$12 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $65 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY $10 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 47¢ $48 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 17h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $27 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 27h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND BUY $10 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $61 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Cz BUY $10 3d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $82 3d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $4 4d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs BUY $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 37¢ $20 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $30 4d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $4 4d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $4 4d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $4 4d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $3 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Sp BUY $10 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread BUY 15¢ $10 5d
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $52 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 53¢ $41 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.80 · official $822.54 · 218 history records