Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7097…811c sports 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$163 (+3%) realized +$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%80W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$364
7 days+$395
14 days+$290
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +7.6% -2.6% 77% 74% +5.0%
≤30d 118 -0.9% -10.4% 68% 64% -6.2%
≤90d 118 -0.9% -10.4% 68% 64% -6.2%
all 118 -0.9% -10.4% 68% 64% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 64% -6.2%
10% -18.9% 46% -15.1%
15% -26.8% 33% -23.3%
20% -34.0% 21% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$32 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses80 / 38
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage17d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $69 +$19 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $194 +$20 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $106 +$8 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $96 +$87 +91%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $155 +$76 +49%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $73 +$46 +63%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $59 +$30 +50%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $57 +$11 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $121 +$55 +45%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $45 +$10 +23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $124 −$123 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $48 +$56 +117%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $91 +$37 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $86 +$13 +15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$25 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 +$16 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $11 +$12 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $84 +$17 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 +$5 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $60 +$38 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 +$5 +43%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $79 +$20 +25%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $74 +$25 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $39 +$9 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $28 +$18 +65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$4 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$15 +29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $95 −$94 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $142 +$43 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $92 +$33 +36%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $70 +$25 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 −$27 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $37 +$32 +86%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $110 +$20 +18%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $26 +$16 +62%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $8 +$13 +161%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $11 +$7 +62%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $12 +$8 +67%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $42 +$9 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 46m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $69 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $215 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 89¢ $87 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 91¢ $108 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 93¢ $106 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $184 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $42 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $231 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $21 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $60 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $74 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $32 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $40 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $59 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $57 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $176 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $13 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $24 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $37 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $46 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $45 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $55 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $69 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records