Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7097…e1de sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,413 (-6%) realized −$4,482 · open −$3,931
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%76W / 49L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,040per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1,202est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$470
7 days+$3,000
14 days+$12,410
30 days+$12,127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$13,921
other 4% +$1,895
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.7% -6.2% 74% 57% +1.9%
≤30d 62 +21.6% +10.0% 82% 71% +10.0%
≤90d 125 -6.4% -15.3% 61% 54% -15.2%
all 125 -6.4% -15.3% 61% 54% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 54% -15.2%
10% -23.4% 40% -23.3%
15% -30.8% 34% -30.7%
20% -37.6% 27% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,566) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$488 vs −$922 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$954
Realized−$4,482
Unrealized−$3,931
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses76 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,202
Open positions4
Markets (closed)125 / 129
History coverage83d
Avg bet$1,040
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 55¢ 48¢ $1,100 $950 −$150 (-14%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ 0¢ $1,518 $2 −$1,517 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ 0¢ $1,572 $1 −$1,570 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $695 $1 −$694 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,485 +$1,605 +108%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,718 +$1,009 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,520 +$220 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $524 −$519 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,623 −$1,126 -69%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,013 +$629 +62%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,009 −$2,009 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $506 +$36 +7%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,730 +$235 +14%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $483 −$483 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $398 +$105 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $340 +$55 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,909 +$138 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,379 +$531 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $548 +$507 +92%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $582 −$582 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2,234 +$1,199 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,462 +$800 +55%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $1,654 +$1,196 +72%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,628 +$49 +3%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,551 +$77 +5%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $1,181 +$131 +11%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $68 +$8 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $134 +$22 +16%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,126 +$124 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $968 +$156 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $938 +$164 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $946 +$488 +52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $540 +$960 +178%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,786 +$693 +25%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $12 +$5 +43%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $440 −$440 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,160 +$1,160 +100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $318 +$52 +16%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $735 +$765 +104%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $550 +$450 +82%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $656 +$558 +85%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,241 −$1,241 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $265 +$287 +108%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $418 −$418 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $380 +$620 +163%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $109 +$89 +82%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $1,774 +$887 +50%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $939 +$165 +18%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $963 +$373 +39%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $407 +$471 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $216 3m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $1 3m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $1 4m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $1 4m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $5 4m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $5 4m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $881 6m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $596 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $16 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $31 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $81 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $45 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $41 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $1 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $2 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $9 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $86 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $493 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $115 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $2 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $1,545 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $716 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $71 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $255 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $55 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $247 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $3 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $25 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $151 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $953.56 · official $953.56 (match) · 728 history records