Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

70 0x7099…4f56 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$18 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$14

7 days−$13

14 days−$24

30 days−$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)+25.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+81.5%	+64.2%	55%	36%	-22.7%
≤30d	18	+38.1%	+25.0%	50%	39%	-30.1%
≤90d	18	+38.1%	+25.0%	50%	39%	-30.1%
all	18	+38.1%	+25.0%	50%	39%	-30.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.0%	39%	-30.1%
10%	+13.0%	28%	-36.8%
15%	+2.1%	28%	-42.9%
20%	-7.9%	22%	-48.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -25% → late +101% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$453

Realized−$18

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)18 / 22

History coverage10d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$220	$219	−$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	15¢	$184	$186	+$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$34	$34	+$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	82¢	86¢	$13	$14	+$1 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$5	$0	-5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$5	$0	-7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$2	+$1	+60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$7	+$9	+128%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$33	−$27	-81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	+$3	+10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox	Jun 19	$1	$0	+1%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Jun 19	$1	$0	-5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$7	+$1	+16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	$0	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	−$1	-32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 13	$1	$0	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$189	2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$22	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	65¢	$5	19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$16	19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$13	32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	29¢	$5	32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$15	33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$225	33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$13	38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$2	38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	33¢	$5	38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	25¢	$11	38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$6	40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	14¢	$6	40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$33	44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$30	46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	20¢	$10	46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$20	46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$2	3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox	SELL Boston Red Sox	45¢	$1	3d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL Yes	60¢	$1	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$8	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	82¢	$8	6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$9	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.15 · official $453.15 (match) · 64 history records