Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7099…1f09 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-15%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 41% -2.5%
≤30d 17 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 41% -2.5%
≤90d 17 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 41% -2.5%
all 17 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 41% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 41% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 41% -11.8%
15% -38.5% 41% -20.4%
20% -44.5% 29% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$21 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $23 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records