Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
70 0x709b…ae96 sports 30 markets active 9h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$461 (+39%) realized +$461 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$349
14 days+$437
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$254
sports 38% +$286
world 9% −$54
crypto 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +54.6% +39.9% 46% 43% +19.8%
≤30d 30 +56.0% +41.2% 47% 43% +24.2%
≤90d 30 +56.0% +41.2% 47% 43% +24.2%
all 30 +56.0% +41.2% 47% 43% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.2% 43% +24.2%
10% +27.7% 43% +12.3%
15% +15.3% 40% +1.5%
20% +4.0% 40% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$25 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$461
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage8d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$70 +69%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 +$33 +80%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$6 -8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$54 -53%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$102 +200%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$113 +442%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $29 21h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $74 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $76 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $48 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $68 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $46 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records