Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x709b…0a0a other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,344 (+6%) realized +$2,114 · open −$770
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 53L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2,519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$365
14 days+$2,556
30 days+$4,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$827
economics 27% −$742
world 16% −$2,518
politics 13% +$5,594
crypto 11% −$634
finance 5% +$309
sports 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 46% +5.3%
≤30d 44 +23.3% +11.6% 43% 43% +91.4%
≤90d 59 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 36% +18.5%
all 88 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 39% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 39% -0.1%
10% -17.6% 34% -9.6%
15% -25.6% 32% -18.4%
20% -32.9% 26% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$161 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$2,519
Realized+$2,114
Unrealized−$770
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)88 / 99
History coverage435d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $715 $666 −$49 (-7%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $799 $404 −$395 (-49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $203 $322 +$119 (+59%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $491 $278 −$213 (-43%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $204 $211 +$8 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $140 $164 +$24 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $230 $101 −$129 (-56%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $178 $94 −$84 (-47%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $130 $87 −$43 (-33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$29 -28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $171 −$170 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $161 +$78 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$33 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $96 +$64 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $230 +$26 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$49 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 +$35 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $66 +$70 +106%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $91 +$28 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $79 +$45 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $69 −$68 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $108 +$42 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$82 +137%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$46 +84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$24 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $64 +$30 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $205 +$329 +160%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$85 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 12 $927 +$2,272 +245%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $104 +$727 +702%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $142 +$1,001 +708%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 28 $106 −$92 -87%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 28 $96 −$74 -76%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 09 $204 −$204 -100%
US recession by end of 2026? May 06 $176 +$27 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 11 $226 −$212 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Apr 11 $147 −$137 -94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 11 $316 −$270 -85%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $149 −$149 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $73 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $73 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $239 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $160 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $96 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 26h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $42 26h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 26h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 31h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 31h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,519.25 · official $2,520.40 (match) · 482 history records