Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
70 0x709f…02fa other 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+18%) realized +$35 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$60
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$19
sports 21% +$19
crypto 3% −$5
world 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +51.8% +37.4% 12% 12% +36.6%
≤30d 95 +15.0% +4.0% 9% 9% +9.2%
≤90d 95 +15.0% +4.0% 9% 9% +9.2%
all 95 +15.0% +4.0% 9% 9% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 9% +9.2%
10% -5.9% 9% -1.2%
15% -15.0% 9% -10.8%
20% -23.4% 9% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -84% → late +112% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×13.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 86
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)95 / 111
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $76 $82 +$6 (+8%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Netherlands? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Netherlands? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 United States? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$11 +550%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 +$20 +1968%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +325%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 +$35 +3370%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +365%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $1 +$13 +1290%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$18 +874%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 +$23 +2214%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 United States? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Netherlands? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 27m
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27m
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 28m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $78 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 31h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.03 · official $105.32 · 125 history records