Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70a4…f00a crypto 865 markets active 3d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$144 (+0%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%692W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$44
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$458
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -2.4% -11.7% 79% 40% -10.4%
≤30d 250 -4.8% -13.9% 79% 35% -11.3%
≤90d 865 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 37% -9.9%
all 865 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 37% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 37% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 19% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 11% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$46 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses692 / 173
Open positions0
Markets (closed)865 / 865
History coverage69d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 865 Trades
no open positions (115 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$12 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2402 history records