Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x70a5…29d2 crypto 11 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+22%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 55% +7.7%
≤30d 11 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 55% +7.7%
≤90d 11 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 55% +7.7%
all 11 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 55% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 55% +7.7%
10% -11.4% 55% -2.6%
15% -20.0% 45% -12.0%
20% -27.8% 45% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$14 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$14 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$13 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records