Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
70 0x70a8…7925 world 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$489 (-11%) realized −$489 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$27
30 days−$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$12
other 32% −$429
sports 14% −$53
politics 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -10.4% -18.9% 22% 0% -20.0%
≤90d 13 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 0% -20.9%
all 13 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 0% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 0% -20.9%
10% -30.4% 0% -28.5%
15% -37.1% 0% -35.4%
20% -43.3% 0% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$68 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage94d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $375 $375 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 27 $370 −$2 -0%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Jun 20 $280 −$4 -2%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 19 $281 −$1 -0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 13 $461 +$34 +7%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $463 $0 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 10 $461 −$461 -100%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $468 −$6 -1%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $461 +$14 +3%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 01 $457 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 21 $7 $0 -2%
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) Apr 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $56 $0 +1%
Spread: Llaneros FC (-2.5) Apr 02 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $375 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $369 2h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $370 2h
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $276 7d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $280 7d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $280 8d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $281 8d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $461 14d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $463 14d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $463 14d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 96¢ $461 17d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $462 17d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $468 17d
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $461 26d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $455 26d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $457 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 37d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $7 37d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $2 59d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $27 59d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $7 59d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $25 59d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) BUY El Gouna SC $7 59d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $30 59d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $27 59d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $27 59d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $22 59d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 59d
Spread: Llaneros FC (-2.5) BUY América de Cali 100¢ $88 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.25 · official $375.25 (match) · 33 history records