Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
70 0x70a9…d647 crypto 1221 markets active 5d ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$791 (-9%) realized −$778 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%546W / 705L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$524
7 days−$585
14 days−$585
30 days−$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$437
other 1% −$13
finance 1% +$27
world 0% −$3
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -75.9% -78.2% 3% 3% -92.5%
≤30d 101 -75.9% -78.2% 3% 3% -92.5%
≤90d 912 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 45% -18.2%
all 1251 -10.3% -18.9% 44% 41% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 41% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 39% -25.5%
15% -33.7% 39% -32.7%
20% -40.2% 35% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$778
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses546 / 705
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1251 / 1221
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $37 −$12 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 2 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 10? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$7 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Jun 17 $8 −$23 -290%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 2 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.77 · official $94.77 (match) · 3500 history records