Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70ac…8811 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,027 (+1%) realized +$2,027 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,569per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$17
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,587
politics 38% −$103
sports 10% +$513
world 2% −$4
economics 1% −$3
tech 1% +$5
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +3.8% -6.1% 15% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 99 +1.3% -8.4% 9% 4% -9.6%
all 144 +3.8% -6.1% 21% 15% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 15% -8.7%
10% -15.1% 14% -17.5%
15% -23.3% 11% -25.4%
20% -30.8% 10% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,690) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$10 · ×10.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$2,027
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,569
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $280 $279 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,675 −$7 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $3,023 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,642 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,407 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $429 +$8 +2%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,448 −$5 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,152 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,771 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $72 +$67 +93%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,672 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $3,945 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,648 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,909 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $57 +$77 +134%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,833 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $5,560 −$6 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $478 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $608 +$1 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $2,189 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,472 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,247 −$3 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,099 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $53 +$42 +79%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $2,594 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,181 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $4,188 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $6,062 −$7 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,963 −$3 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,889 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $273 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $273 3h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $238 44h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $239 46h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $259 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $260 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,118 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $337 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $338 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,203 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,205 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,230 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,232 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,650 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,652 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,642 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,642 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,645 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,405 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,407 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $429 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,561 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,563 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,629 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,631 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,666 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.48 · official $279.48 (match) · 487 history records