Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70af…5847 sports 412 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%238W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$151
14 days+$218
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$78
other 37% −$167
crypto 10% +$55
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +17.4% +6.2% 61% 61% +2.7%
≤30d 251 +3.3% -6.6% 59% 59% -5.5%
≤90d 385 -2.8% -12.1% 57% 56% -12.5%
all 410 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 57% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 57% -10.2%
10% -17.0% 52% -18.8%
15% -25.0% 43% -26.6%
20% -32.4% 30% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses238 / 172
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)410 / 412
History coverage159d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$8 +64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$24 +160%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $15 +$6 +40%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$10 +52%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 +$26 +86%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$33 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $5 +$14 +270%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 32m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $10 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $20 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 38¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $10 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $31 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $20 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $15 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 63¢ $15 28h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $10 29h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 61¢ $10 30h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 62¢ $10 30h
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 32h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 32h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 32h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 53¢ $10 33h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 49¢ $10 43h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.16 · official $11.16 (match) · 850 history records