Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70b2…5805 sports 496 markets active 19h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$700 (+7%) realized +$735 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%201W / 240L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$91
14 days−$214
30 days+$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$469
other 33% +$375
world 5% −$48
crypto 5% −$131
politics 3% −$41
tech 1% +$18
economics 1% −$37
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% −$6
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +13.1% +2.3% 43% 40% -14.9%
≤30d 223 +10.6% +0.0% 49% 44% +0.3%
≤90d 441 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 36% -2.6%
all 441 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 36% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 36% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 33% -11.9%
15% -27.0% 29% -20.4%
20% -34.2% 25% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized+$735
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses201 / 240
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions55
Markets (closed)441 / 496
History coverage52d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $79 $105 +$27 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $97 $105 +$8 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $84 $93 +$9 (+11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $63 $58 −$5 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-16%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+59%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 51¢ 56¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+29%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $20 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 14¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+20%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 60¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 54¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-22%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 94¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+49%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 23¢ $21 $9 −$12 (-56%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $22 $9 −$13 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$4 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $22 +$11 +48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $22 −$8 -38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -64%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $52 −$24 -46%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -90%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 +$8 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 +$21 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $14 +$6 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $32 +$18 +57%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $23 −$22 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$24 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$20 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$27 -54%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $33 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 6¢ $0 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $6 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $6 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $15 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $9 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 22h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $3 22h
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $2 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $9 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $20 28h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 28h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $20 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 28h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $6 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $14 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $20 28h
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 29h
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 29h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 29h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $978.97 · official $984.97 (match) · 1638 history records