Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x70b2…92d6 sports 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$754 (+12%) realized +$753 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%102W / 194L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$184
14 days+$307
30 days+$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$738
other 4% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +33.6% +20.9% 45% 45% +20.7%
≤30d 139 +5.0% -5.0% 40% 40% +8.0%
≤90d 296 +2.0% -7.7% 34% 34% +0.9%
all 296 +2.0% -7.7% 34% 34% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 34% +0.9%
10% -16.5% 34% -8.7%
15% -24.6% 34% -17.6%
20% -32.0% 32% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$17 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$753
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses102 / 194
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions2
Markets (closed)296 / 298
History coverage55d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $79 +$118 +149%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $14 +$17 +118%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$23 +152%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $7 +$35 +510%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 +$25 +365%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 +$7 +360%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$3 -66%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$20 +197%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $8 +$7 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$11 +105%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $12 +$17 +137%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$48 +244%
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $21 +$30 +145%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +103%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $70 +$47 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$31 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $13 +$18 +143%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $21 +$23 +107%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $14 +$7 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $9 +$5 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $17 +$13 +74%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $43 +$29 +67%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 +$24 +122%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $33 −$13 -41%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$22 +206%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $7 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $197 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $79 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 31¢ $40 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 3h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $17 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 18h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 18h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 18h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $16 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 28h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $7 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $7 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $2 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $8 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.57 · official $12.57 (match) · 436 history records