Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70b5…5910 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-3%) realized −$62 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$34
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$89
other 8% −$9
world 4% −$57
sports 2% +$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -1.3% -10.7% 64% 55% -7.9%
≤30d 47 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 51% -8.1%
≤90d 47 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 51% -8.1%
all 47 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 51% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 51% -8.1%
10% -24.0% 45% -16.9%
15% -31.3% 30% -25.0%
20% -38.0% 17% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage8d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 65¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $123 +$50 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $152 −$32 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $152 −$29 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $113 −$99 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $202 +$40 +20%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $122 +$37 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $211 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $90 −$57 -63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +199%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.96 · official $23.96 (match) · 123 history records