Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70b6…84c8 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$35
politics 27% −$27
crypto 14% +$1
sports 13% −$8
finance 6% +$3
culture 5% −$3
world 3% −$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 30 -1.5% -10.9% 3% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 116 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 137 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 119
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage105d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 22 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $55 −$15 -28%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $257 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $111 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $308 −$4 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $158 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $152 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $261 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 27 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $195 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $49 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 26 $114 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $106 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $107 −$3 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 24 $56 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 24 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $470 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $325 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 16 $56 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $137 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 14 $57 $0 +0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 14 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $682 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $63 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $64 7h
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 71¢ $40 12d
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 97¢ $55 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $66 20d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $66 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $60 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $36 21d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $24 21d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $58 21d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $59 21d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 21d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 21d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $49 21d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $49 21d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $60 21d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $60 22d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 22d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $51 22d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $45 22d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $45 22d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $53 22d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $53 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $58 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $28 23d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 23d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $52 23d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $52 23d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $57 23d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $57 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 590 history records