trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 50% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 17 | -5.9% | -14.9% | 6% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $34 | $34 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Jun 28 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | May 07 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Feb 02 | $11,150 | −$11 | -0% |
| Berachain airdrop in 2024? | Mar 14 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? | Oct 05 | $113 | $0 | +0% |
| GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | Oct 05 | $124 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 03 | $105 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Oct 03 | $252 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 02 | $106 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? | Oct 02 | $128 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Oct 01 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Sep 30 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Sep 30 | $130 | $0 | +0% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Sep 29 | $122 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | Sep 29 | $188 | $0 | -0% |
| Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Sep 28 | $80 | −$1 | -1% |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House | Sep 28 | $75 | −$1 | -1% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY No | 99¢ | $34 | 1h |
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL No | 100¢ | $34 | 1h |
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY No | 100¢ | $34 | 52d |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY No | 98¢ | $33 | 146d |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | SELL No | 98¢ | $11,139 | 146d |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | BUY No | 98¢ | $11,150 | 146d |
| Berachain airdrop in 2024? | BUY Yes | 71¢ | $19 | 615d |
| Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | SELL No | 50¢ | $40 | 638d |
| Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | SELL Yes | 49¢ | $39 | 638d |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House | SELL No | 71¢ | $53 | 638d |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House | SELL Yes | 28¢ | $21 | 638d |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | SELL No | 98¢ | $78 | 638d |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | SELL Yes | 2¢ | $2 | 638d |