Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
70 0x70b9…269d sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$27 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$61
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$60
other 31% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.2% +10.5% 40% 40% +23.7%
≤30d 16 +14.5% +3.6% 38% 38% +22.3%
≤90d 71 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 41% -13.4%
all 71 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 41% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 41% -13.4%
10% -26.8% 38% -21.7%
15% -33.8% 34% -29.2%
20% -40.3% 28% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 42
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)71 / 80
History coverage68d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 53¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 May 01 $13 −$13 -99%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 +$3 +32%
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 May 01 $7 +$3 +52%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $25 +$19 +78%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
CA Lanús vs. CA Central Córdoba: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $29 +$19 +64%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $27 +$3 +11%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $20 +$7 +34%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Salford City FC vs. Bromley FC end in a draw? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bromley FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 23 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $10 +$26 +262%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $25 +$10 +41%
Will Oxford United FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $10 +$17 +172%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 +$16 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $43 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 53¢ $20 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 22h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $83 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $19 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 7d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 8d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.64 · official $48.64 (match) · 137 history records