Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70bb…10d3 sports 252 markets active 5d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+7%) realized +$239 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%124W / 122L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$22
14 days+$207
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$114
other 9% −$56
world 6% +$34
crypto 3% +$111
tech 0% $0
politics 0% +$3
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 50% +0.3%
≤30d 212 -9.4% -18.1% 49% 42% -4.1%
≤90d 246 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 43% -4.2%
all 246 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 43% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 43% -4.2%
10% -24.0% 36% -13.3%
15% -31.3% 27% -21.7%
20% -38.1% 22% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses124 / 122
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions6
Markets (closed)246 / 252
History coverage65d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+18%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 72¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 26¢ 37¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $6 +$4 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $9 −$4 -48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $53 +$19 +37%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $29 +$8 +27%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $12 +$8 +70%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $6 +$4 +57%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $4 +$7 +172%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $2 +$2 +65%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $16 −$6 -36%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $19 +$2 +11%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $15 −$6 -41%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $8 −$7 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $33 −$1 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $31 +$19 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $25 −$5 -19%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $4 +$6 +140%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 +$9 +262%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 $0 -59%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 $0 -6%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $36 +$5 +14%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $8 +$2 +31%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $14 +$10 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $105 +$111 +106%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $35 +$91 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 45¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 60¢ $6 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $0 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 67¢ $7 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 43¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 45¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 74¢ $8 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 29¢ $3 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 39¢ $4 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 98¢ $0 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 18¢ $2 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 69¢ $3 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $5 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $6 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 66¢ $7 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 38¢ $4 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $6 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 32¢ $2 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 66¢ $7 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 78¢ $8 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $3 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 79¢ $8 6d
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 36¢ $4 6d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Emerson Jones 30¢ $3 6d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 34¢ $3 6d
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch BUY Yunchaokete Bu 63¢ $6 6d
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano BUY Filippo Romano 50¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.15 · official $22.02 (match) · 905 history records