trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 81¢ | 81¢ | $11,671 | $11,646 | −$24 (-0%) |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $5,560 | $3,806 | −$1,754 (-32%) |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $1,773 | $1,847 | +$74 (+4%) |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 47¢ | $1,837 | $1,168 | −$668 (-36%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $5,161 | $0 | −$5,161 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Up | 55¢ | 0¢ | $1,045 | $0 | −$1,045 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Thunder | 43¢ | 0¢ | $4,300 | $0 | −$4,300 (-100%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $5,298 | $0 | −$5,298 (-100%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $4,273 | $0 | −$4,273 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? | Jun 10 | $4,906 | +$6,848 | +140% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | May 29 | $188 | +$509 | +271% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | May 26 | $302 | +$1,263 | +418% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | May 26 | $5,298 | −$5,298 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | May 26 | $6,419 | +$6,844 | +107% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 26 | $5,475 | +$4,525 | +83% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | May 26 | $1,049 | −$1,045 | -100% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? | May 25 | $4,373 | −$4,273 | -98% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | May 25 | $161 | +$143 | +88% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | May 25 | $1,835 | +$1,406 | +77% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | May 25 | $5,161 | −$5,161 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET | May 24 | $998 | −$998 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET | May 24 | $1,077 | +$243 | +22% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | May 24 | $620 | +$40 | +6% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 24 | $4,374 | −$4,300 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET | May 24 | $4,987 | −$4,987 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET | May 24 | $3,138 | +$3,237 | +103% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET | May 24 | $1,300 | −$1,300 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | May 24 | $10,073 | +$1,207 | +12% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | May 24 | $6,543 | +$6,543 | +100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET | May 24 | $12,003 | −$12,003 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET | May 24 | $4,979 | +$416 | +8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +139.6% | +116.8% | 100% | 100% | +116.8% |
| ≤30d | 22 | +24.3% | +12.5% | 59% | 50% | -16.1% |
| ≤90d | 22 | +24.3% | +12.5% | 59% | 50% | -16.1% |
| all | 22 | +24.3% | +12.5% | 59% | 50% | -16.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +12.5% | 50% | -16.1% |
| 10% | +1.7% | 45% | -24.1% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -8.1% | 41% | -31.4% |
| 20% | -17.1% | 41% | -38.1% |