Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70bc…4e16 sports 119 markets active 10h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,890 (-20%) realized −$11,890 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%41W / 78L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$951est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$13,224
14 days−$21,245
30 days−$17,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$12,837
politics 13% −$27
other 4% +$585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -26.8% -33.8% 26% 26% -46.9%
≤30d 82 -13.8% -22.0% 29% 29% -44.6%
≤90d 82 -13.8% -22.0% 29% 29% -44.6%
all 119 -5.5% -14.5% 34% 34% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 34% -28.2%
10% -22.7% 34% -35.1%
15% -30.1% 34% -41.4%
20% -37.0% 33% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$521) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +33% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$518 vs −$430 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,890
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses41 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$951
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage618d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 17 $280 −$205 -73%
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Zhang Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $931 −$931 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $3,420 −$3,345 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $4,096 +$2,445 +60%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $3,285 −$3,251 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Vukic vs Wendelken Jun 14 $825 +$1,078 +131%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $914 +$2,115 +232%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Jangjun Kim Jun 14 $799 −$797 -100%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $887 −$867 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Evans vs Giron Jun 13 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $2,131 −$2,081 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 13 $687 −$672 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $331 +$356 +108%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $1,172 −$1,149 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $315 +$856 +272%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $849 −$848 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $254 +$595 +234%
ITF Martos: Emile Hudd vs Joao Domingues Jun 12 $329 −$321 -98%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $533 −$523 -98%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $528 −$518 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $538 −$526 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $472 −$460 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $966 −$388 -40%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,313 −$1,294 -99%
ITF Guimaraes: Francisca Jorge vs Aliona Falei Jun 12 $586 −$575 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julie Struplova vs Martha Matoula Jun 12 $408 −$400 -98%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $366 +$531 +145%
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 11 $539 +$677 +126%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $333 +$706 +212%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $462 −$129 -28%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $189 −$185 -98%
ITF Zagreb: Elina Avanesyan vs Lea Boskovic Jun 11 $324 −$319 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $417 −$409 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $499 −$488 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $476 −$467 -98%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $391 +$584 +149%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $533 −$521 -98%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $553 −$542 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $251 +$480 +191%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $370 −$367 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Potapova vs Lamens Jun 10 $355 +$716 +201%
Korea Open: Clara Tauson vs Maya Joint Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Parry Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins Jun 10 $57 −$57 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff Jun 10 $182 −$182 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 10h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 10h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 5¢ $40 10h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Zhang BUY Frech 21¢ $19 2d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 47¢ $43 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 47¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $86 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $13 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $8 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $11 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $2 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $8 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $2 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $8 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $8 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $8 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $11 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $7 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $3 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $657 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Fernandez/Siegemund 44¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 533 history records