Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x70bc…4a1a crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$31 (+13%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 54% +6.0%
≤30d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 54% +6.0%
≤90d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 54% +6.0%
all 13 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 54% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 54% +6.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 38% -4.1%
15% -27.9% 23% -13.4%
20% -35.0% 8% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records