Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x70bd…3ecf other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$136 (+8%) realized +$107 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$249
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$202
sports 47% +$8
crypto 3% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +51.5% +37.1% 39% 39% +32.4%
≤30d 69 +20.7% +9.2% 36% 36% +3.5%
≤90d 69 +20.7% +9.2% 36% 36% +3.5%
all 69 +20.7% +9.2% 36% 36% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 36% +3.5%
10% -1.2% 36% -6.4%
15% -10.8% 36% -15.4%
20% -19.5% 32% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$15 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 44
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)69 / 79
History coverage12d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 69¢ $41 $50 +$9 (+22%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+34%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 +$50 +982%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $13 +$17 +129%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 29 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $58 +$44 +76%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $10 +$81 +786%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $23 +$30 +129%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $5 +$28 +550%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -52%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $36 −$35 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$30 +576%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$30 +97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $28 +$12 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$34 +140%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $84 +$40 +48%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $22 +$40 +180%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$16 +307%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $76 +$100 +131%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $30 +$33 +109%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $25 +$27 +105%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $51 +$31 +62%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $42 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 43¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $23 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $58 8h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 32h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 32h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.50 · official $139.51 (match) · 117 history records