Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
70 0x70c1…3f1b crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$6
sports 2% −$1
other 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 47 -0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage567d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in November? Dec 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 11 $2,816 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 11 $2,984 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? Aug 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $4 $0 +1%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 240 or more times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will ETHBTC be more than .033 on February 7? Feb 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 20 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? Jan 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Jan 11 $3 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $4 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Dec 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? Dec 06 $29 $0 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Dec 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? Dec 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? Dec 06 $17 $0 +0%
Saints vs. Giants Dec 06 $5 $0 -2%
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-07? Dec 05 $15 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Dec 05 $15 $0 -3%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Dec 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? Dec 05 $18 $0 -0%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 05 $16 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Hawks Dec 05 $11 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? Dec 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? Dec 04 $7 $0 -2%
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Dec 04 $26 $0 -0%
Jets vs. Dolphins Dec 04 $2 $0 -4%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Dec 03 $3 $0 -0%
Raiders vs. Buccaneers Dec 03 $1 $0 -0%
Browns vs. Steelers Dec 03 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 59d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $28 88d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in November? BUY No 99¢ $16 207d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $2,813 222d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,816 222d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $2,981 222d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,984 222d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $2 298d
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 331d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 362d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 391d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 431d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 454d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 99¢ $3 465d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 99¢ $1 465d
Solana above $175 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Will Trump post 240 or more times on Truth Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $3 480d
Will ETHBTC be more than .033 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $1 501d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 509d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 509d
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 509d
Was Trump hacked? BUY No 99¢ $1 519d
Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 522d
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? BUY No 100¢ $1 525d
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $1 528d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.20 · official $31.20 (match) · 155 history records