Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
70 0x70c4…1273 crypto 404 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+2%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate78%315W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 401 +1.4% -8.3% 78% 75% -9.4%
≤30d 403 +1.6% -8.1% 78% 75% -9.4%
≤90d 403 +1.6% -8.1% 78% 75% -9.4%
all 403 +1.6% -8.1% 78% 75% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 75% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 45% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 10% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses315 / 88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)403 / 404
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 83¢ 82¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $55 +$14 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $81 +$23 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $80 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $79 +$23 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $53 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $79 +$15 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $79 +$29 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $78 +$19 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $83 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$3 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $82 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $55 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $81 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $79 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $32 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $79 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $53 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $78 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $80 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $54 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $83 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.63 · official $75.74 · 924 history records