Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70c4…980f other 752 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,382 (-2%) realized −$5,381 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate85%642W / 109L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$131
14 days−$94
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$398
crypto 18% −$4,921
weather 16% −$395
sports 9% +$124
world 7% +$55
tech 2% +$26
politics 1% −$32
culture 0% +$6
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 23% -16.6%
≤30d 47 -4.2% -13.3% 85% 9% -10.9%
≤90d 344 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 8% -11.6%
all 751 -2.3% -11.6% 85% 7% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 7% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 2% -20.1%
15% -27.8% 1% -27.8%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$106 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$5,381
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses642 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)751 / 752
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$313
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 95¢ 94¢ $169 $168 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $163 +$7 +4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $153 +$9 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $149 +$4 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $145 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $142 +$2 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $131 +$13 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $116 +$15 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $107 +$9 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$16 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 +$4 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $218 −$217 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $175 +$4 +2%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots Jun 17 $19 +$1 +7%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $212 +$1 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $187 +$22 +12%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $185 +$4 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $183 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $169 +$14 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 +$9 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $158 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $145 +$9 +6%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $315-$320 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $680? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close at $640-$650 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $275? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $330? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 8 above $1,040? Jun 12 $24 −$14 -59%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $182 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $190 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $180 +$7 +4%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $180 $0 +0%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $168 +$12 +7%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $165 +$3 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $159 +$5 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $159 $0 +0%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $158 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $7 +$7 +105%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $389 −$389 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $169 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $163 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $153 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $149 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $149 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $145 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $98 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $129 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $131 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $131 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $116 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $107 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $91 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $88 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 90¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $218 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $64 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $56 7d
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots BUY No 93¢ $19 7d
Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots BUY No 97¢ $19 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $164 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.19 · official $168.19 (match) · 3500 history records