Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70c4…e7be sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$95 · open +$89
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$44
sports 34% −$8
other 13% −$11
tech 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -65.1% -68.5% 17% 17% -22.9%
≤30d 6 -65.1% -68.5% 17% 17% -22.9%
≤90d 6 -65.1% -68.5% 17% 17% -22.9%
all 6 -65.1% -68.5% 17% 17% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.5% 17% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -71.5% 0% -30.3%
15% -74.2% 0% -37.0%
20% -76.8% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$23 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)6 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 95¢ $55 $95 +$40 (+73%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 33¢ 84¢ $33 $84 +$52 (+156%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 69¢ 72¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $54 $51 −$2 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+38%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 53¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Netanyahu out by July 31? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $60 −$59 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $325 +$47 +15%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $73 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $34 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $56 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 59¢ $60 1h
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 1h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 1h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $3 15h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 21h
Netanyahu out by July 31? BUY Yes $2 21h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $70 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $31 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $55 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $9 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $40 23h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 25h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 43¢ $44 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $2 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $0 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 73¢ $10 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.72 · official $452.97 (match) · 31 history records