Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70c9…717f crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-9%) realized −$44 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$71
sports 5% +$5
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 22% -24.4%
≤30d 49 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 22% -24.4%
≤90d 49 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 22% -24.4%
all 49 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 22% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 22% -24.4%
10% -19.7% 16% -31.6%
15% -27.5% 10% -38.2%
20% -34.6% 4% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Down 80¢ 50¢ $29 $18 −$11 (-38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Up 45¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +166%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 -11%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $1 $0 -42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $1 $0 -5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $1 +$17 +1620%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +44%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$41 -79%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$3 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$3 +15%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$5 +31%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $18 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET BUY Down $1 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 34h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.21 · official $30.21 (match) · 109 history records