Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70c9…caf5
sports · 183 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$5,351 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,183 · open +$1,067
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,167
Realized−$7,183
Unrealized+$1,067
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses130 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$904
Open positions10
Markets (closed)173 / 183
History coverage65d
Avg bet$989
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 10 History 173 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,802
7 days+$2,666
14 days+$2,666
30 days−$5,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 70¢ $1,500 $2,679 +$1,179 (+79%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $2,000 $2,358 +$358 (+18%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 71¢ 72¢ $1,000 $1,007 +$7 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $800 $822 +$22 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) Sakellaridis 68¢ 37¢ $1,000 $543 −$457 (-46%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $500 $520 +$20 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $400 $381 −$19 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $400 $357 −$43 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $300 $254 −$46 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $200 $244 +$44 (+22%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $3,998 $0 −$3,998 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Cristian Garin 77¢ 0¢ $993 $0 −$993 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1,478 $0 −$1,478 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Tsitsipas Bublik 63¢ 0¢ $1,582 $0 −$1,582 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton Ben Shelton 86¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Felix Auger-Aliassime 95¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Casper Ruud 81¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks Knicks 70¢ 0¢ $991 $0 −$991 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Patrick Kypson 72¢ 0¢ $496 $0 −$496 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Caty McNally Katerina Siniakova 44¢ 0¢ $983 $0 −$983 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 0¢ $2,106 $0 −$2,106 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Fabian Marozsan vs Vit Kopriva Fabian Marozsan 60¢ 0¢ $750 $0 −$750 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 62¢ 0¢ $1,200 $0 −$1,200 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $689 $0 −$689 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan Wawrinka Stefano Travaglia 95¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $406 +$222 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $729 +$512 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $813 +$864 +106%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4,056 −$3,998 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,010 +$528 +52%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 23 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez May 22 $1,513 +$592 +39%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $1,509 −$1,500 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $1,502 −$1,500 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Harold Mayot vs Tomas Barrios May 19 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Yunchaokete Bu May 19 $807 +$352 +44%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Felix Gill May 19 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $1,010 +$470 +47%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 18 $503 +$130 +26%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $805 +$220 +27%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,007 +$292 +29%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Anastasia Zolotareva May 17 $2,001 +$40 +2%
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone May 17 $806 +$247 +31%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $503 +$100 +20%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 +$106 +52%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 +$76 +38%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,003 −$1,000 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Hugo Gaston May 17 $806 +$233 +29%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas May 17 $527 −$519 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Will Paksi FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $505 +$259 +51%
Will Ferencvarosi Budapest win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $502 +$63 +12%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $3,004 +$150 +5%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Quentin Halys May 16 $1,012 +$622 +62%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $303 +$151 +50%
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Titouan Droguet May 16 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $1,214 −$1,200 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $1,210 +$457 +38%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Zizou Bergs May 14 $1,010 +$491 +49%
Set 1 Winner: Cirstea vs Gauff May 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov May 13 $712 +$995 +140%
Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez May 13 $1,406 +$243 +17%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 12 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien May 12 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $1,010 +$483 +48%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 11 $1,006 +$251 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% −$10,607
other 26% +$3,235
politics 3% +$1,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $1,009 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $406 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $729 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $813 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $411 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $411 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $820 9d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,527 9d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 9d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,013 21d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 21d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,029 21d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 21d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $2,018 22d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro BUY Victoria Mboko 63¢ $1,011 22d
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien BUY Mariano Navone 60¢ $1,012 22d
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik BUY Learner Tien 65¢ $1,010 22d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez BUY Emilio Nava 71¢ $1,513 23d
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone BUY Casper Ruud 81¢ $1,509 23d
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 95¢ $1,502 25d
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) BUY Sakellaridis 68¢ $1,010 25d
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 86¢ $1,004 25d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Harold Mayot vs Tomas Barrios BUY Tomas Barrios 79¢ $1,006 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Emilio Nava 69¢ $807 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Felix Gill BUY Felix Gill 74¢ $1,008 26d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $1,010 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +84.1% +66.5% 100% 100% +71.9%
≤30d 40 +2.8% -7.0% 72% 68% -20.9%
≤90d 173 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 54% -13.3%
all 173 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 54% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 54% -13.3%
10% -17.6% 41% -21.6%
15% -25.6% 28% -29.2%
20% -32.9% 17% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,166.57 · official $9,166.57 (match) · 394 history records