Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x70cb…4c56 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+1%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 51L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
other 15% +$3
politics 12% −$8
sports 3% +$121
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.4% +6.2% 17% 17% -5.7%
≤30d 20 +10.2% -0.3% 20% 10% -8.4%
≤90d 54 -2.1% -11.5% 22% 17% -9.9%
all 72 +2.5% -7.3% 29% 18% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 18% -9.1%
10% -16.1% 18% -17.8%
15% -24.2% 14% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage621d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +105%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $8 +$8 +101%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $180 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $319 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $155 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $156 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $318 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $157 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 23 $158 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 +$6 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $16 +$8 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $16 +$5 +29%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $77 $0 +0%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 01 $35 +$34 +96%
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5 Mar 30 $23 +$23 +100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $28 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 26h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 29h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 31h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 99¢ $101 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $8 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $25 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.91 · official $134.91 (match) · 323 history records