Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70cf…40ec sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$96 (-13%) realized −$79 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$20
other 29% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 47% -13.2%
≤30d 19 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 47% -13.2%
≤90d 19 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 47% -13.2%
all 19 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 47% -13.2%
10% -26.9% 47% -21.5%
15% -34.0% 47% -29.1%
20% -40.4% 47% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 34¢ $40 $25 −$15 (-38%)
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 28¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$43 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $41 +$33 +82%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $51 +$77 +152%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$31 +62%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $51 +$35 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $15 +$13 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$16 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $35 +$28 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $15 −$13 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $74 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 33¢ $40 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 3h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $41 3h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $41 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 22h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $128 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $51 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $86 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 31h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $46 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $15 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $15 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $12 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $34 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $35 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.02 · official $82.23 · 41 history records