Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x70d3…5eac other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$31 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$28
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$7
sports 12% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -41.8% -47.3% 25% 25% -25.8%
≤30d 5 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 40% -5.6%
≤90d 5 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 40% -5.6%
all 5 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 40% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 40% -5.6%
10% -36.5% 40% -14.6%
15% -42.6% 40% -22.9%
20% -48.2% 40% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$33 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 28¢ $33 $16 −$17 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $54 +$72 +133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $67 +$37 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $34 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $54 38h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $44 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $67 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.49 · official $32.49 (match) · 17 history records