Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70d3…1f1f sports 55 markets active 6h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$122 (-54%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$47
other 28% −$37
crypto 18% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -43.4% -48.8% 32% 32% -61.0%
≤30d 50 -43.4% -48.8% 32% 32% -61.0%
≤90d 50 -43.4% -48.8% 32% 32% -61.0%
all 50 -43.4% -48.8% 32% 32% -61.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 32% -61.0%
10% -53.7% 32% -64.7%
15% -58.1% 30% -68.1%
20% -62.2% 24% -71.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Alexander Zverev vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 30¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Corentin Moutet vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Fabian Marozsan vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ben Shelton vs. Ethan Quinn: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Terence Atmane vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Alexander Zverev vs. Vit Kopriva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 17h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 18h
Alexander Zverev vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 30¢ $1 18h
Ben Shelton vs. Ethan Quinn: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 65¢ $1 18h
Corentin Moutet vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 55¢ $1 18h
Fabian Marozsan vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 66¢ $1 18h
Terence Atmane vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 66¢ $2 26h
Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $2 26h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $1 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 33h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 42h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $5 42h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $5 43h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 57¢ $3 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 45h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 47h
Alexander Zverev vs. Vit Kopriva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 79¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 51¢ $5 2d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 53¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.88 · official $7.78 (match) · 75 history records