Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70d4…6491 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,386 (+56%) realized +$1,391 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day142.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,381
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$5
other 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +20.4% +8.9% 37% 37% +43.8%
≤30d 43 +20.4% +8.9% 37% 37% +43.8%
≤90d 43 +20.4% +8.9% 37% 37% +43.8%
all 43 +20.4% +8.9% 37% 37% +43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.9% 37% +43.8%
10% ← realistic here -1.5% 35% +30.1%
15% -11.0% 33% +17.5%
20% -19.7% 30% +6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$33 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$1,391
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day142.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-80%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $160 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $209 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$166 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $116 +$156 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $130 +$104 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $336 +$1,006 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $148 +$491 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $82 −$77 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $89 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$51 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $82 +$36 +44%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$58 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$54 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $111 −$89 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$37 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$11 +1116%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $18 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $82 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $23 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.01 · official $11.03 (match) · 160 history records