Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
70 0x70d9…f30d world 13 markets active 1d ago coverage 167d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$341 (-24%) realized −$75 · open −$266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$86
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$55
other 36% −$311
politics 7% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.9% +29.3% 50% 50% +29.3%
≤30d 2 +42.9% +29.3% 50% 50% +29.3%
≤90d 3 +80.7% +63.5% 67% 67% +63.5%
all 6 -9.6% -18.3% 33% 33% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 33% -18.3%
10% -26.1% 33% -26.1%
15% -33.2% 33% -33.2%
20% -39.8% 33% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +81% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$100 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$266
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage167d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $200 $113 −$87 (-43%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
EU dissolves before 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $100 $31 −$69 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $100 +$186 +186%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 14 $100 +$156 +156%
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? Jan 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 4d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 38d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 96d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 119d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 119d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 160d
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? BUY No 0¢ $100 166d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 168d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 168d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.51 · official $533.51 (match) · 95 history records