trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Jun 12 | $0 | +$289 | +710883% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day | Jun 12 | $1,811 | −$1,798 | -99% |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 12 | $602 | −$154 | -26% |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,088 | −$1,025 | -94% |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 12 | $821 | −$820 | -100% |
| Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | Jun 12 | $50 | +$64 | +127% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 11 | $302 | −$204 | -67% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +248.7% | +215.5% | 29% | 29% | -85.7% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +248.7% | +215.5% | 29% | 29% | -85.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +248.7% | +215.5% | 29% | 29% | -85.7% |
| all | 7 | +248.7% | +215.5% | 29% | 29% | -85.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +215.5% | 29% | -85.7% |
| 10% | +185.3% | 29% | -87.1% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +157.7% | 29% | -88.3% |
| 20% | +132.4% | 29% | -89.5% |