Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70d9…706c crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+1%) realized +$91 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%47W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$150
14 days−$150
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$44
weather 3% −$134
other 2% −$28
sports 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -81.7% -83.5% 14% 14% -78.0%
≤30d 13 -46.5% -51.6% 38% 31% -43.1%
≤90d 92 -7.9% -16.6% 51% 49% -11.0%
all 92 -7.9% -16.6% 51% 49% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 49% -11.0%
10% -24.6% 43% -19.5%
15% -31.9% 36% -27.3%
20% -38.6% 28% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$47 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses47 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)92 / 101
History coverage40d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 78¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+33%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-72%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $38 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 22 $26 −$21 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 21 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 21 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 21 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $52 −$34 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 20 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 20 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 20 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 20 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 20 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 20 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 20 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $98 −$61 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 20 $75 +$38 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 20 $63 +$119 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $139 −$110 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 20 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 20 $21 +$73 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 20 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 20 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 19 $52 +$63 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 19 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 19 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 19 $88 −$85 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 19 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 19 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 19 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 19 $156 +$144 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 19 $89 +$24 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 19 $37 +$68 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 6h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.66 · official $121.66 (match) · 307 history records