Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70dc…b05d crypto 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-4%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%134W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$54
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$73
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -13.6%
≤30d 308 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 39% -17.4%
≤90d 308 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 39% -17.4%
all 308 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 39% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 35% -25.3%
15% -33.8% 28% -32.5%
20% -40.3% 25% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses134 / 174
Open positions0
Markets (closed)308 / 308
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 308 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 760 history records