Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70dd…a4e3
crypto · 197 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2,052 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,052 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,052
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses49 / 148
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage156d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 0 History 197 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Honduras (-1.5) Honduras 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Curaçao vs. Aruba: O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$3 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$11 +529%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$23 +109%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? Jun 07 $8 −$6 -82%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 07 $24 −$22 -94%
Curaçao vs. Aruba: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$27 +170%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $24 −$23 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $13 +$72 +556%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$7 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$5 +124%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $6 −$5 -79%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Honduras (-1.5) Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $17 −$10 -58%
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 25 $5 +$6 +124%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-21? Apr 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $9 −$1 -10%
Knicks vs. Nets Mar 21 $84 −$23 -28%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Mar 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 21 $660 −$600 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 20 $71 −$27 -38%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 20 $67 −$2 -3%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31? Mar 19 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $100 −$31 -30%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mar 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 45% +$2,660
sports 43% −$41
other 8% −$424
economics 3% −$117
finance 0% −$32
world 0% +$6
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $4 44m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 7¢ $4 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $40 58m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $5 59m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $5 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $36 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 8h
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $24 5d
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 5d
Curaçao vs. Aruba: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 5d
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.9% -14.8% 20% 20% -32.7%
≤30d 25 -5.9% -14.8% 20% 20% -32.7%
≤90d 51 -40.7% -46.3% 12% 12% -69.2%
all 197 -15.1% -23.2% 25% 23% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 23% +9.9%
10% -30.5% 22% -0.6%
15% -37.2% 21% -10.2%
20% -43.4% 20% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 561 history records