trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $13 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $11 | +$2 | +15% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $16 | −$8 | -51% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | Jun 13 | $10 | −$4 | -37% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | +$1 | +19% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | +$1 | +20% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | +$2 | +36% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $46 | −$43 | -94% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $3 | +$2 | +60% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -78% |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $3 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +165% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +48% |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid | May 30 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting? | May 01 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | -15.8% | -23.8% | 53% | 53% | -49.6% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -20.5% | -28.1% | 50% | 50% | -50.0% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -24.7% | -31.8% | 47% | 47% | -50.4% |
| all | 19 | -24.7% | -31.8% | 47% | 47% | -50.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.8% | 47% | -50.4% |
| 10% | -38.4% | 21% | -55.1% |
| 15% | -44.3% | 21% | -59.5% |
| 20% | -49.8% | 11% | -63.4% |