Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70de…8ac6 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-18%) realized −$10 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$7
other 12% −$6
sports 11% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +32.4% +19.8% 36% 36% -12.9%
≤30d 11 +32.4% +19.8% 36% 36% -12.9%
≤90d 11 +32.4% +19.8% 36% 36% -12.9%
all 11 +32.4% +19.8% 36% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 36% -12.9%
10% +8.4% 36% -21.3%
15% -2.1% 27% -28.9%
20% -11.7% 27% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$40 +746%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.66 · official $3.66 (match) · 21 history records