Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70de…8cf2 sports 1093 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,608 (-1%) realized −$2,606 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1079W / 13L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$60
14 days+$110
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$5,003
crypto 25% +$2,344
other 3% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 41 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 5% -7.9%
≤90d 1079 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -10.4%
all 1092 +1.1% -8.5% 99% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 1% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$441 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2,606
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1079 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1092 / 1093
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$402
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1092 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 100¢ 52¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $299 +$15 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $311 +$1 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $117 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $309 +$3 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $295 +$11 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $605 +$1 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $603 +$6 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $599 +$1 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $589 +$11 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $591 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $588 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $585 +$6 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $549 +$6 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $612 +$13 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $608 +$12 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $608 +$7 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 06 $467 +$17 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET Jun 06 $131 +$22 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 03 $132 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $775 +$15 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 8AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9AM ET Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $779 +$7 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 8AM ET May 28 $388 +$22 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET May 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET May 27 $764 +$7 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 8AM ET May 26 $79 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: SE7ENS Esport vs XI Esport (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europ May 26 $245 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9PM ET May 26 $634 +$6 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $4 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 10PM ET May 25 $243 +$28 +12%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 11PM ET May 24 $609 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5PM ET May 22 $612 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: hypewrld vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In Gr May 18 $144 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET May 15 $572 +$6 +1%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ch May 13 $221 −$221 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $221 −$221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 13 $572 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $96 +$1 +0%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 13 $35 $0 +0%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 12 $221 −$221 -100%
Map Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Wolves Esports (+1.5) May 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $299 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $311 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $45 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $309 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $295 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $53 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $552 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $603 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $600 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $95 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $42 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $328 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $35 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $589 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $591 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $588 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.58 · official $2.58 (match) · 3500 history records